College Town Touch down

Plenty of top programs attract big bettors, and a very popular bet during the college football offseason for sickos itching for some action is the win total. Odds makers choose a number of wins they see a team earning in the regular season and set a line on or around it. Most win total lines have a “hook” which is a half of a number to make sure no bets “push” meaning tie. We are going to take a very early stab at predicting whether some big name programs will go over their projected win total or under it. This is a prediction based on the 12 game regular season. Win total lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Ohio State: Under 10.5 wins

The Buckeyes went under 10.5 wins last season and won the national title. It’s certainly not crazy to say they can go under 10 wins again. They also lost 14 players to the NFL draft and others to the league as undrafted free agents. Their first game is in Columbus against the Texas Longhorns who will be looking for revenge after last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal loss. The win total likely will pivot on the result of that week one game, and we lean in favor of the Longhorns. Ohio State has also lost to Michigan for 4 straight seasons, and this year will have to play in Ann Arbor to try and get over that hump. Other notable games for the Buckeyes this season are an intriguing late September road test against Washington to open Big Ten play, a home game vs Penn State who almost certainly will be ranked in the top ten, and a road battle against Wisconsin. 

North Carolina: Over 7.5 wins

The Tar Heels completely overhauled last year’s roster and oh by the way hired arguably the greatest football mind of all time in head coach Bill Belichik. They also avoid Miami, Florida State (who had a miserable year last year but is still a blue blood program), SMU, and Georgia Tech on their ACC schedule. They open on a Monday night in prime time vs TCU and we think they win that game as they’re already favored and can rally behind Belichick’s experience in prime time. Their next two games are Charlotte and Richmond which will be near automatic wins. They even pull Clemson at home and only have to travel out west once, where they play a team in Cal who lost their QB and entire RB room to the portal. We are only looking for 8 wins here and we feel this is a great spot for the Heels. 

Alabama: Under 9.5 wins

Alabama is another team who has a win total projection that is greater than their total wins last season. Again, they lost some key pieces to the NFL and the portal, though not nearly as many as Ohio State. The big question for the Tide is at quarterback, where Jalen Milroe’s absence will be felt early. No quarterback on their roster has any playing experience and they open their season on the road against a Florida State team with something to prove. Also, they’re in the SEC. Last season they were playoff hopefuls and lost to Vanderbilt, who despite having a better season than expected, still has been the laughing stock of the conference for quite some time. Anything can happen in SEC football and if you get caught slipping, it might be too late. Their other road games are Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, and Auburn in the Iron Bowl where you can throw the records out the window. They also see Oklahoma, LSU, and Tennessee at home. Just a grueling meat grinder of a schedule and it’s not far fetched to say they lose at least three of those games, especially without certainty at quarterback. This is also Kalen DeBoer’s second season as the top man for the Tide, and it’s too early to tell if he’s able to reload a roster like his predecessor Nick Saban. Look for Bama to slip up at least 3 times this fall, and take that under. 

Oregon: Over 10.5 wins 

Yes, we are predicting Oregon loses only one game in the 2025 season. It’s quite possible they don’t lose any regular season games, just like last season. On paper, they have a 2024 Indiana-esque schedule. They avoid having to play some of the tougher teams in the Big Ten such as Ohio State and Michigan, and even teams like Nebraska and Illinois who are poised to make a bit more noise in 2025. The obvious test for the Ducks comes at Penn State in a raucous environment on September 27th. The Ducks will likely be 4-0 by that game, and the prediction will pivot on this test. If they get out of Happy Valley with a win, they still have room to slip up once, for example in a sneaky tough road trip against Iowa. Head coach Dan Lanning has one loss combined in his last two regular seasons at the helm for the Ducks, and we wouldn’t be surprised if that winning trend continues in 2025. Dante Moore will be the new quarterback who was a starter at UCLA and a five star recruit who backed up Dillon Gabriel last season, taking in all sorts of info from the seasoned veteran. Moore and the Ducks will look to reload and start fast, as they open the season on August 30th at home vs Montana State. 

Texas: Under 10.5 wins

Though we think Texas will beat Ohio State, there’s a chance they will not. Week one anything can happen, and new QB Arch Manning is in for a tall task against the defending national champions. Even if Texas does pull that game out, there’s a chance they still lose twice, as they do play in the SEC just like Alabama. Simply a tougher schedule week in and week out, and just one unexpected loss would ultimately decide the win total going under. They’re on the road against Georgia and Florida, they play their arch rivals Oklahoma every year at a neutral site in the red river rivalry, and they will also see Arkansas and Texas A&M in the final two games of the season. There are two losses there. It’s possible it’s teams we haven’t even mentioned. The Longhorns have national championship hopes and even with two regular season losses, they can still easily make the playoffs and do so (see last year’s Ohio State team). We are entering an era in college football (at least in the power four conferences) that is more similar to the NFL. Every week is not necessarily a must win. The schedule every week is much more competitive, especially when you choose Ohio State as an out of conference game. There is a good chance you will see multiple teams with more than one loss have a chance at the title, especially with the way the playoffs went this year for undefeated and one loss teams. Texas has a lot of tough football in front of them, and a couple regular season losses might be the bulletin board material they need to take their final step to title town. 

Notre Dame: Under 10.5 wins

The fighting Irish are a perfect example of the oddities the college football season can bring. Just one week after beating Texas A&M in College Station last season, they lost at home to Northern Illinois who ended up finishing 7th in the MAC. Then Notre Dame proceeded to win 13 straight games on their way to the national title game, ultimately falling 31-23. Unfortunately this season for the Irish won’t be so magical. The past two seasons they leaned on the portal for their next star quarterback, and this year decided to commit to the talent within. We think this is a mistake that will prove to be critical. As we predicted just a few weeks ago, one Notre Dame quarterback entered the spring transfer portal. This was their most experienced quarterback Steve Angeli. The future is bright for the Irish, but that won’t be without some growing pains. The two candidates to start at quarterback for Notre Dame this year are CJ Carr and Kenny Minchey. The sophomore Minchey and freshman Carr have a combined 16 yards passing. They also have no time to waste as they visit Miami week one on a Sunday night. Following the road trip and a bye week they then host Texas A&M. It’s possible they lose the first two games and already go under their win total line for 2025. If not, there are plenty of losable games for the young QBs who we predict will both get at least a couple starts throughout the season when things go off the rails. The Irish are on the road against Arkansas, host Boise State and USC, and also travel to Chestnut Hill to face Boston College the day after Halloween. This season could be very spooky for the Irish. 

Clemson: Over 9.5 wins

Dabo Swinney’s Tigers have not had a 10 win regular season for the past two years. With their returning production, especially their star quarterback Cade Klubnik, we think they get back to their standard. Clemson returns 4 of 5 starting Offensive linemen from last season, their top tackler, top receiver and their most productive defensive lineman. They open the season with a serious test against LSU, which we think they win as it is a home game. The win total going over 9.5 can very well be determined by the result of this week one game. A nugget that helps Clemson’s case is the fact that LSU has lost five straight season opening games. Their last win in week one came all the way back in their national title season with Joe Burrow at the helm. Clemson has a relatively tough schedule this season, but we think they are primed for it. This will be Cade Klubnik’s third full season as the Tigers’ starter. If a ten win season is going to happen, it will be on his shoulders. He has no lack of weapons, with Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco, and T.J. Moore all returning for this season. Williams became Klubnik’s favorite target in 2024, and Wesco and Moore were very highly rated true freshmen last season. Two road games to look out for are a visit to coach Belichik in Chapel Hill on October 4th, and a trip to Louisville on a Friday night in November. Between the LSU, North Carolina, and Louisville games, Clemson can afford to lose one of them. Even with a loss in this stretch, they can still afford another (potentially the last week of the season at South Carolina) and go over their win total. The standard at Clemson is excellence, and this season they will look to get back to basics. 

Penn State: Under 10.5 wins

Penn State often has a soft schedule. They haven’t beaten Ohio State since 2016. The Nittany Lions are 3-19 against AP top ten teams under head coach James Franklin. That’s not a recipe for an 11 win regular season, even though they did it last year. This year however, they will see Ohio State in Columbus and will also have to host Oregon. Most likely those are your two losses. We wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a game in which they are favored to a team like Nebraska or on the road vs Iowa. Last season they had an overtime scare against USC. They are a team that runs the ball and likes to win the possession battle. They are an elite defense but can be punched in the mouth when they can’t control the tempo of the game. They return tons of production but lost two massive pieces in Abdul Carter and Tyler Warren, both of whom were top 15 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Warren was the leading receiver last season for Penn State, and after a half hearted attempt to address the wide receiver room this offseason, it seems Drew Allar will still lack pass catchers with the ability to create separation. They added Kyron Hudson who was the fourth best receiver on a mediocre USC team. They also added Devonte Ross who was nothing short of elite at Troy, but what will he look like against the likes of the Big Ten. Until proven otherwise against elite teams, we will pick Penn State to lose. Since their play style also incites close games, we wouldn’t be surprised if they drop another and ultimately disappoint this season. 

In the off-season, speculation is all we have. The twists and turns of the fall are unpredictable enough to make tuning in every Saturday a must. With the information we have at this point in the year, this is our opinion on some of college football’s most watch-worthy teams heading into this exciting 2025 season.